Latest Nielsen Poll

February 6, 2012

COALITION AHEAD 53% TO 47%

Key Findings

• Two-party vote: Coalition 53% (steady) lead ALP 47% (steady) [based on 2010 election preferences]
• First preferences: Labor 34% (up 1), Coalition 44% (down 1), Greens 12% (down 1)
• Ms Gillard’s approval at 36% (down 4); disapproval at 60% (up 5)
• Mr Abbott’s approval at 41% (steady); disapproval at 56% (up 2)
• Preferred PM: Abbott 47% (up 1); Gillard 46% (down 2)

The government would be defeated if an election was held now, according to the latest Nielsen Poll.

The national poll of 1,201 respondents, taken on Wednesday and Thursday nights (22-23 February 2012), shows the Coalition with 53% of the two-party vote (steady since 2-4 February) ahead of the ALP on 47% (also steady). Interviewing for the poll began within thirty minutes of Kevin Rudd announcing his resignation as Foreign Minister.

On primaries Labor is on 34% (up 1) and the Coalition is down one point to 44%. The Greens lead the minor parties with 12% of the vote (down 1). Family First is on 2% (up 1), and independents are on 6% (up 1). Other parties are on 3% (steady).

This is the highest primary vote for Labor since November 2010 although it is still down 4 points on the August 2010 election. The Liberal and National parties would win an election held now with a two-party preferred swing of around 3%.

When the two-party vote is calculated by how respondents said they would allocate preferences, the result is Coalition 52% (steady) ahead of the ALP on 48% (steady).

[Compared to the 2-4 February 2012 poll there was no statistically significant movement in two-party vote (both 2010 and respondent preferences) or primary vote (except Family First).]

The leaders

Ms Gillard’s approval rating is 36% (down 4). Disapproval of Ms Gillard is 60% (up 5), giving her a net approval of minus 24 which is down 9 points. (36% approval minus 60% disapproval = -24%).

Mr Abbott’s approval is 41% (steady). Disapproval of Mr Abbott is at a personal record high of 56% (up 2). This is the highest disapproval rating for an opposition leader since Malcolm Turnbull’s 60% in August 2009. Mr Abbott’s net approval is at a personal record low of -15% (down 2). Mr Abbott’s approval rating has been on 41% for five polls in a row (starting October 2011) and is one point higher than his lowest approval rating of 40% in June 2010.

Mr Abbott is ahead of Ms Gillard as preferred Prime Minister: Abbott is on 47% (up 1) and Gillard is on 46% (down 2). Ms Gillard has been ahead Mr Abbott as preferred Prime Minister only once since May 2011 (Ms Gillard had a 48-46 lead in the 2-4 February 2012 poll).

[The change for Ms Gillard in approval and preferred PM rating was statistically significant at the 5% level. No other leader movements were statistically significant. Note also that 47%-46% is not a statistically significant difference in voter preference for PM.]

MAJORITY PREFER RUDD BUT VOTERS SPLIT ON LEADERSHIP CHANGE

Key Findings

• 58% of voters (up 1 point) prefer Kevin Rudd as ALP leader; 34% (down 1) prefer Julia Gillard
• 48% say Labor should swap to Rudd, 47% want Labor to stay with Gillard
• 50% of voters agree with the statement “It would be best if a general election was held as soon as possible”; 48% agree that “It would be best if the government served its full term”

Kevin Rudd remains the nation’s preferred Labor leader although voters are split on whether Labor should change leaders according to the latest Nielsen Poll.

The national poll of 1,201 respondents, taken on Wednesday and Thursday nights (22-23 February 2012), found that 58% of voters (up 1 point since 2-4 February) prefer Mr Rudd as ALP leader, while 34% (down 1) prefer Julia Gillard. [These changes were not statistically significant.]

Preferred ALP Leader

The proportion of Labor voters preferring Rudd is up and the proportion of Green voters preferring Rudd is down. This suggests the possibility that some Rudd-supporting voters have switched from Green to Labor while some Gillard-supporting voters have moved from Labor to Green. [The change in support for Rudd and Gillard among ALP voters was statistically significant at the 5% level. No other changes were statistically significant.]

Should Labor change leaders?

All voters were asked ‘do you think the Labor Party should change leaders and swap back to Kevin Rudd or stay with Julia Gillard?’ Voters were evenly split with 48% saying Labor should switch and 47% saying the party should stay with Gillard. A majority of ALP and Green voters want the ALP to stay with Gillard while a majority of Coalition voters want the ALP to return to Rudd.

Almost eight in ten Rudd supporters (79%, up 7) think Labor should switch while around one in five (18%, down 5) say Labor should stick with Gillard.

Should there be an election?

Respondents were asked to choose which of two statements best described their view: “It would be best if the government served its full term” or “It would be best if another election was held as soon as possible”. One in two respondents (50%, up 8 points since November 2010) preferred an early election while 48% (down 7 points) wanted the Government to serve its full term.

VOTERS PREFER RUDD OVER ABBOTT AS PM

Key Findings

• 58% of voters prefer Kevin Rudd as Prime Minister over Tony Abbott (38%)
• Among Labor voters 89% prefer Kevin Rudd (5% prefer Abbott)
• Among Coalition voters 74% prefer Tony Abbott (24% prefer Rudd)

A majority of voters prefer Kevin Rudd as Prime Minister according to the latest Nielsen Poll.

The national poll of 1,201 respondents, taken on Wednesday and Thursday nights (22-23 February 2012), found that 58% of voters (up 9 points since June 2010) prefer Mr Rudd as Prime Minister, while 38% (down 1) prefer Tony Abbott.

A significant majority of Labor and Green voters (around nine in ten) prefer Rudd over Abbott. Among Coalition voters 74% prefer Abbott, but almost one in four (24%) prefer Rudd.

Questions:

Q.4. Which of the following statments best describes your view?
READ OUT & ROTATE 1-2
1 It would be best if a general election were held as soon as possible
2 It would be best if the government served its full term
DO NOT READ OUT
8 Neither
9 Don't know

Q.5. Who is your preferred Prime Minister out of...?
READ OUT & ROTATE 1-2 SINGLE RESPONSE
1 Kevin Rudd
2 Tony Abbot
DO NOT READ OUT
8 Other
9 Don't know

Q.6. And now thinking about the Labor leadership, who is your preferred leader of the Labor Party out of...?
READ OUT & ROTATE 1-2 SINGLE RESPONSE
1 Kevin Rudd
2 Julia Gillard
DO NOT READ OUT
9 Don't know

Q.7. And do you think the Labor Party should change leaders and swap back to Kevin Rudd or stay with Julia Gillard?
READ OUT; SINGLE RESPONSE
Swap back to Kevin Rudd
Stay with Julia Gillard
DO NOT READ OUT
Don't know



Poll Profile

Fieldwork Dates : 22-23 February 2012
Sample Size : 1,201 respondents
Sample Spread : Nationwide, 18+
Method : Telephone

The maximum margin of sampling error that might apply given this sample size is approximately 2.6%. Telephone numbers were selected at random. The data has been weighted to reflect the population distribution.

The Nielsen Poll is conducted exclusively for The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald.

Nielsen Poll 2012
Nielsen Poll 2011
Nielsen Poll 2010
Nielsen Poll 2009
Nielsen Poll 2008
ACNielsen Poll 2007
ACNielsen Poll 2006
ACNielsen Poll 2005
ACNielsen Poll 2004
ACNielsen Poll 2003
ACNielsen Poll 2001
ACNielsen Poll 2000
ACNielsen Poll 1999
ACNielsen Poll 1998
ACNielsen Poll 1997
ACNielsen Poll 1996