Latest Nielsen Poll

November 13-15 2008

Key Findings

• Two-party vote: ALP 55% (down 1 since mid-October) lead Coalition 45% (up 1)
• First preferences: Labor 45% (down 1) ahead of Coalition 39% (steady)
• Mr Rudd’s approval at 70% (down 1); 22% disapprove (up 2)
• Mr Turnbull’s approval at 51% (down 4); disapproval at 35% (up 5)
• Rudd leads as preferred PM by 65% (up 1) to Turnbull 27% (up 1)

Labor has maintained its strong lead over the Coalition according to the latest Nielsen Poll.  

The national poll of 1,400 respondents, taken from 13-15 November, shows Labor ahead on 55% (down 1 point since mid-October) and the Coalition on 45% (up 1). This is a swing to Labor of around 2% since the 2007 election.

On primaries Labor is on 45% (down 1) and the Coalition is steady on 39%. The Greens lead the minor parties with 10% of the vote (up 1). The Democrats are on 1% (steady), Family First is on 1% (steady) and independents are on 2% (down 1). Other parties are on 2% (steady).

When the two-party vote is calculated by how preferences flowed at the 2007 election, the result is Labor 55% (steady), Coalition 45% (steady).

Movements in the two-party and primary voting intention estimates in this poll were less than the poll’s margin of error of +/- 2.6%, indicating no significant change since October.

Rudd verse Turnbull

Approval of Prime Minister Rudd fell one point to 70%. Disapproval of Mr Rudd increased 2 points to 22%.

Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating fell four points to 51%. Disapproval of Mr Turnbull is 35% (up 5 points).

“Despite the fall in his approval rating this month, Mr Turnbull has averaged 50% approval since taking over the leadership in September. This compares with an average rating of 35% for his predecessor Dr Nelson” said Nielsen polling director, John Stirton.

Mr Rudd leads Mr Turnbull as preferred Prime Minister by 65% (up 1 point) to 27% (up 1). This 38 point lead is the same as last month and is equal to the biggest lead Mr Rudd has had over Mr Turnbull. Mr Rudd’s average lead over former Opposition Leader Nelson was 48 points.

Majority of Australians remain optimistic

• 56% (down 2 since mid-October) are optimistic about the Australian economy in the next 2-3 years, 40% (up 3) feel pessimistic
• 68% approve of Kevin Rudd’s handling of the economy, 25% disapprove
• 51% will spend same amount on Christmas compared to last year, 35% will spend less
• 49% will spend same on holidays and leisure in holiday period, 33% will spend less

A majority of Australians (56%) feel optimistic about Australia’s economy over the next 2-3 years, according to the latest Nielsen Poll.

The national poll of 1,400 respondents, taken from 13-15 November, found that 56% (down 2 points since mid-October) are feeling optimistic and 40% (up 3) are feeling pessimistic. Respondents were asked: “Thinking about Australia’s economic future, say the next two or three years, are you feeling very optimistic, optimistic, pessimistic or very pessimistic?” One in twenty-five (4%, steady) are feeling very optimistic, 53% (down 1) are optimistic, 34% (up 2) pessimistic and 6% (up 1) very pessimistic.

Asked about the Prime Minister’s handling of the economy, 68% approve of the way Prime Minister Rudd is handling the economy (12% strongly approve, 56% approve). One in four voters (25%) disapprove of the Prime Minister’s handling of the economy. Last month, when voters were asked about Mr Rudd’s handling of the global financial crisis, 76% approved and 16% disapproved. Note that as the questions were different, this month’s results do not indicate a change in voter sentiment toward Mr Rudd.

Among ALP voters, 90% support Mr Rudd’s handling of the economy, while 42% of Coalition voters and 75% of Green voters back the PM.

Respondents were asked two questions about their spending plans over the holiday period:

Q. Thinking now about what you will spend on Christmas or similar celebrations this year, overall do you think you will spend more than last year on Christmas, less than last year on Christmas or will you spend about the same as last year?

Q. I want you to think now about how much you spent on holidays and/or leisure activities in last years Christmas / New Year period. Do you expect to spend more this year, less this or about the same amount?

A majority (51%) of Australians expect to spend about the same amount as last year on Christmas, 35% expect to spend less and 13% say they will spend more. On holidays/leisure, 49% say they will spend the same amount as last year, 33% expect to spend less and 17% say they will spend more.

In last month’s Nielsen Poll, respondents were asked ‘How has the global financial crisis affected your spending?’ Most Australians (69%) had made no change to their spending while 26% had decreased their spending and 4% had increased spending.

PDF files below show voting intention, leadership approval ratings and preferred Prime Minister by calendar year since 1996. Note that no ACNielsen Federal Polls were conducted in 2002.

The Nielsen Poll is conducted exclusively for The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald.

Nielsen Poll 2008
ACNielsen Poll 2007
ACNielsen Poll 2006

ACNielsen Poll 2005

ACNielsen Poll 2004

ACNielsen Poll 2003

ACNielsen Poll 2001

ACNielsen Poll 2000

ACNielsen Poll 1999

ACNielsen Poll 1998

ACNielsen Poll 1997

ACNielsen Poll 1996